The Gulf's £200bn AI Bet

Following last week's analysis of thermal integration across six continents, this week we examine how the Gulf's AI ambitions accelerated nuclear timelines in ways Western observers entirely missed.

While Western capital markets pause for Christmas, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) continues its relentless buildout. In 2025, three Gulf nations committed over £160bn ($200bn, €187bn) to artificial intelligence infrastructure. The engineering reality behind these numbers reveals something unexpected: nuclear power has become the prerequisite, not the afterthought, for AI sovereignty.

The UAE's Barakah nuclear plant now delivers 5.6 GW of clean baseload power. That is 25% of the Emirates' electricity. It took ten years from groundbreaking to full commercial operation across all four APR-1400 reactors. Compare that to US nuclear projects measured in decades. The Gulf proved something: when AI demands power, nuclear delivers.

The G42-led Stargate UAE project represents the largest single AI infrastructure commitment of 2025. The 10 square mile campus will host 5 GW of AI compute capacity. The first 200 MW phase comes online in 2026 using NVIDIA Grace Blackwell GB300 systems.

What powers this ambition? Nuclear, solar, and natural gas in combination. But the baseload requirement, the 24/7 power that AI models demand, comes from nuclear. Without Barakah, Stargate UAE would remain a concept document.

Qatar's December announcement of a £16bn ($20bn, €19bn) joint venture between Qai and Brookfield signals the smallest GCC economy's AI pivot. Qatar has low electricity costs from abundant natural gas. But the kingdom faces a fundamental question: can gas alone power the 1.5 to 2 GW of data centre capacity planned by 2030?

RBC analysts suggest Qatar's progress will be notable if it reaches 500 MW by 2029. That is modest compared to neighbours. The energy equation explains why: without nuclear, Qatar depends entirely on gas price stability for AI competitiveness.

Humain, the PIF-backed AI company, announced plans for 6 GW of data centre capacity in October 2025. The December joint venture with STC adds another 1 GW hosting capability. Meanwhile, NEOM's DataVolt partnership commits £4bn ($5bn, €5bn) for a 1.5 GW net-zero AI factory in Oxagon.

Saudi Arabia plans 16 nuclear reactors. Zero are operational today. The kingdom's National Atomic Energy Project received its first IAEA management review in 2025. The timeline gap between AI ambition and nuclear delivery creates risk. Every GW of data centre capacity without nuclear backing increases gas dependence.

The UAE's Barakah success provides a template. Four reactors in ten years. On budget. Commercially operational. Korea's KEPCO delivered what US vendors could not: predictable nuclear construction.

For AI infrastructure, predictability matters more than price. A 5 GW data centre campus requires 45 TWh annually. Intermittent renewables cannot deliver that alone. Gas adds carbon exposure. Nuclear provides the baseload guarantee.

The MGX AI Infrastructure Partnership with BlackRock, Microsoft, and NVIDIA targets £79bn ($100bn, €93bn) in next-generation data centres. Their first criterion: reliable power. Nuclear-backed sites in the UAE will receive priority allocation.

Saudi Arabia sees the UAE's nuclear advantage. The kingdom's 2025 announcements, from Humain to NEOM, represent a £24bn ($30bn, €28bn) catch-up effort. But without operational nuclear, Saudi Arabia competes on gas prices rather than energy sovereignty.

Qatar's gas abundance provides a different edge. The Qai investment assumes continued low electricity costs. Climate commitments may complicate that assumption over time. Nuclear provides long-term cost certainty that gas cannot match.

AI sovereignty requires energy sovereignty. The Gulf nations understood this before most. The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership formalized in May 2025 came with chip export approvals in October 2025. The prerequisite? Commitment to secure, reliable power infrastructure.

China builds nuclear faster than anywhere. France has 56 operational reactors powering European AI infrastructure. The Gulf saw what Western nations hesitated to acknowledge: AI competition is energy competition first.

Three lessons emerged from the Gulf's 2025 AI pivot:

Nuclear enables AI sovereignty. The UAE's decade-long Barakah investment now delivers competitive advantage. Every 1.4 GW reactor eliminates gas dependence for equivalent data centre capacity.

Speed requires prior infrastructure. Saudi Arabia's ambitious 2025 announcements face 2030+ nuclear timelines. The gap between AI deployment and nuclear availability creates strategic vulnerability.

Capital follows reliability. The MGX partnership, Brookfield's Qatar venture, and Stargate UAE share one requirement: guaranteed baseload power. Nuclear sites attract AI capital. Gas sites compete on price.

The Gulf's £200bn AI bet in 2025 provides a roadmap for infrastructure investors globally. Nuclear-powered AI campuses will capture premium valuations. Gas-dependent sites face commodity exposure. The engineering arbitrage is temporal: those with nuclear today command tomorrow's AI infrastructure market.

As Western observers resume work in January, the Gulf's construction continues. The lesson is clear. AI sovereignty starts with energy sovereignty. Nuclear delivers what intermittent sources cannot: predictability, reliability, and the baseload foundation that artificial intelligence demands.

Next week: The 2028 Power Crunch: What Nuclear Restart Investors See Coming