Middle East Nuclear Atlas

Following last week's analysis of how global grid queue challenges differ across regions, this week we examine how the Gulf Cooperation Council states are bypassing these bottlenecks entirely through strategic nuclear deployment and AI infrastructure integration.

Whilst the US wrestles with 2,600 GW trapped in interconnection queues and Europe debates transmission upgrades, the UAE's Barakah nuclear facility quietly powers 25% of the nation's electricity with 5.6 GW of operational capacity. The strategic timing is revealing. G42 and major US tech firms just announced a 5 GW AI data center campus in Abu Dhabi, with the first 200 MW phase launching in 2026. The connection between these developments is not coincidental. It represents a £200bn ($253bn, €233bn) infrastructure opportunity across Gulf states that challenges conventional assumptions about nuclear deployment timelines.

Here's the disconnect. Global AI infrastructure demands stable baseload power by 2027. Traditional nuclear permitting takes 5 to 10 years minimum. The maths doesn't work for most markets. Yet solutions exist, if you know where to look.

The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation achieved commercial operation of Barakah Unit 4 in September 2024. This milestone completed the Arab world's first nuclear facility, delivering 5.6 GW across four South Korean APR1400 reactors. The facility now generates 40 TWh annually, preventing 22.4 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year.

Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions reveal the regional pattern. The King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy announced a 2.9 GW target in 2017. The US and Saudi Arabia signed a joint declaration in 2025 completing negotiations on civil nuclear energy cooperation.

The Baker Institute's December 2024 policy brief reveals what industry insiders have discussed quietly. GCC states are reassessing joint regional nuclear plant viability, potentially creating shared infrastructure serving multiple countries. Qatar committed £1.98bn ($2.5bn, €2.32bn) to AI development, with projections suggesting £8.7bn ($11bn, €10.2bn) in value by 2030.

Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman all explore nuclear feasibility. The pattern is clear. Every GCC state recognises AI data centers cannot run on intermittent solar alone.

A 1 GW AI data center requires 8,760 GWh annually with 99.999% uptime. Traditional grid connections assume variable demand. The engineering models don't compute. Solar peaks when AI training runs continuously. Wind varies when compute clusters demand constant power. Nuclear provides the only viable baseload solution.

Grid interconnection queues introduce multiple failure points. Permitting delays exceed 36 months. Transmission upgrades add 18 to 24 months. Environmental reviews require 12 to 18 months. The APR1400 reactors at Barakah demonstrate an alternative. South Korea's proven design, built ahead of schedule and within £16.2bn ($20.4bn, €19bn) budget, bypassed Western regulatory complications.

Traditional facilities pay capacity charges, transmission fees, and demand penalties exceeding £39.7m ($50m, €46.4m) annually for a 500 MW facility. Behind-the-meter nuclear avoids this entirely.

The UAE's approach demonstrates spatial proximity advantages. Barakah's 5.6 GW capacity sits 280 km from Abu Dhabi's AI infrastructure zone. Power flows through dedicated transmission, no queue, no waiting. The facility operates at 90% capacity factor.

Studies from Korea's KEPCO confirm nuclear-powered data centers improve grid stability. Redundant reactor configurations provide better reliability than multi-source grid connections. The UAE's regulatory approach enabled rapid deployment by leveraging South Korea's operational experience across 24 reactors.

The Baker Institute's proposal offers a different solution. A jointly owned nuclear facility leverages the GCC Interconnection Authority network. The infrastructure already exists, carrying 3,140 MW capacity with planned expansion to 5,000 MW by 2027.

Six GCC states share similar electricity demand growth, AI infrastructure ambitions, and net-zero commitments. Shared capacity reduces per-country costs whilst accelerating deployment. One 3 GW facility serving three countries costs less than three separate 1 GW facilities.

South Korea's partnership with the UAE created knowledge transfer that now extends to joint third-country nuclear exports. In November 2025, KEPCO and Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation agreed to pursue collaborative nuclear energy exports.

South Korea operates 26 reactors domestically whilst exporting the same designs internationally. China operates 57 reactors and markets aggressively across emerging markets. France's EDF offers 56 reactors' operational experience. Russia's Rosatom builds projects across multiple continents.

Here's what market observers miss. The temporal disconnect between Western AI infrastructure needs and regulatory nuclear deployment timelines creates structural advantages for GCC states willing to move decisively.

Projects requiring traditional US or EU regulatory approval face 10 to 19 years before operation. GCC projects leveraging proven designs bypass most delays, achieving deployment in 6 to 10 years for first-of-kind, faster for subsequent units.

The arbitrage opportunity is temporal, not just financial. First movers in nuclear-powered AI infrastructure capture market positioning whilst competitors wait in regulatory queues. When OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, and SoftBank partner with G42 on UAE's Stargate project, they acknowledge this reality. The fastest path to operational AI capacity runs through Abu Dhabi, not California.

The UAE's 45% market share in GCC nuclear energy represents first-mover advantage in a market just beginning expansion. Saudi Arabia's 2.9 GW target, Qatar's £1.98bn ($2.5bn, €2.32bn) AI investment, and Kuwait's SMR reassessment indicate regional capacity additions over the next decade.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's Phase 1 infrastructure assessment of Saudi Arabia in January 2025 validated nuclear newcomer readiness. If Saudi Arabia begins building in 2027, first reactors could operate by 2034.

The International Energy Agency projects Middle East electricity demand growth of 3.5% to 4.2% annually through 2030. Meeting this whilst achieving net-zero commitments by 2050 to 2060 requires massive clean baseload additions.

Proximity to operational nuclear capacity creates immediate advantages. Data center operators pay premiums for guaranteed baseload power. The UAE's Barakah facility provides competitive advantage that Saudi Arabia's future capacity cannot match until operational. Just 3 to 5 years head start translates to billions in captured AI infrastructure value.

The November 2025 UAE-South Korea joint export agreement suggests collaborative opportunities across emerging markets. Egypt's El Dabaa project, Turkey's Akkuyu development, and Bangladesh's Rooppur facility represent markets where proven GCC nuclear experience carries weight.

Whilst Western markets debate SMR subsidies and design certifications, GCC states implement proven large reactor designs. China's Belt and Road nuclear financing creates competitive pressure that Gulf states must acknowledge.

The GCC nuclear energy market was valued at £431m ($544m, €504m) in 2024, projected to reach £558m ($703m, €652m) by 2033. The UAE holds 45% market share, attributed to early technology investments that competitors now scramble to replicate.

The 2,600 GW stuck in US interconnection queues represents trapped value and also opportunity. Whilst conventional wisdom focuses on fixing broken regulatory processes, engineering reality points to a different solution. Deploy proven nuclear designs in jurisdictions with streamlined approval processes and immediate AI infrastructure demand.

The winners in nuclear-powered AI infrastructure won't be those who navigate Western regulatory processes most efficiently. They'll be those who recognise when traditional regulatory approaches themselves have become the problem and engineer accordingly.

Our analysis of global deployment patterns confirms what Gulf energy executives describe privately. The UAE didn't succeed at Barakah by inventing revolutionary technology. They succeeded by implementing South Korea's proven design through decisive project execution and regulatory pragmatism.

The question isn't whether nuclear power makes sense for GCC AI infrastructure. Barakah's operational success already answered that. The question is which Gulf states capitalise on this £200bn ($253bn, €233bn) opportunity whilst competitors remain trapped in regulatory gridlock.

Next week: We examine global thermal integration strategies, mapping how nuclear waste heat applications create value across six continents through combined heat and power configurations that conventional analysis overlooks.